Newcastle’s reply to Coventry meets Unai Emery’s tired legs at St James’ Park

Newcastle United v Aston Villa | Premier League | St James’ Park | Saturday 17 October, 5.30pm (UK)

Seconds before Coventry’s third goal on Monday night, Joelinton collects the ball inside his own penalty area and tries to dribble out of trouble.

He has been on the pitch for barely twenty minutes. It is his first appearance of the season after injury. Brandon Thomas-Asante closes him down, the ball breaks to Ellis Simms, and a shot that takes a deflection off Malick Thiaw makes it 3-1.

Five days later, Matthias Jaissle is hinting that the same man could start against Aston Villa. Dan Burn, the club captain, will most likely be too soon, the head coach said; Joelinton’s case, he implied, is different. Behind the hint sits a simple admission: “We missed them so much.”

That one passage of play says a lot about Monday, and about this fixture. Newcastle had 67 per cent of the ball that night, 19 shots to Coventry’s nine, and six on target, exactly as many as the hosts. They still lost 4-1. Goalkeeper Lukas Hornicek’s spill handed over a sixth-minute penalty. Thiaw’s header only half-cleared the throw that dropped to Sidiki Cherif for the second. Then came the dribble. Jaissle called it “too many individual mistakes”, and the numbers back him: Newcastle ran the game for long spells and gave it away in a handful of seconds.

The steel question

“Steel” is football shorthand for resilience: how a side reacts after a heavy defeat, and whether it can hold its shape and its concentration when a game turns against it. After Coventry, that is the question hanging over Jaissle’s players.

St James’ Park is where Newcastle get to answer, and the home record gives them something to hold. They are unbeaten in five there (three wins, two draws), the latest a 2-1 win over Hull City before the international break.

One thing keeps recurring, though. Newcastle have gone 12 Premier League home games without a clean sheet. A thirteenth would equal the club record, set between December 1998 and August 1999 under Ruud Gullit. They have conceded 13 goals in six league games, joint-most in the division, and their one shutout came in a 2-0 win at Tottenham at the end of August.

Newcastle have also scored in every league game this season, ten goals in six. Anthony Elanga, Tino Livramento and Jacob Ramsey remain out. Burn has trained only a couple of times since his return. Jaissle has said openly that he is building as the season runs. There will be ups and downs, he said this week, and he expects “one of those seasons”.

The question on Saturday is narrow. Can eleven players go ninety minutes without handing over a goal? Jaissle leans on the crowd for the answer. At home, he said, “we can hurt every opponent”.

The Wednesday Villa

Villa arrive from a record night. The 6-0 win over Fenerbahce was their biggest European win and the biggest victory in any competition under Emery. Nicolas Jackson, the Senegalese striker, and Ross Barkley, the midfielder, scored two apiece. Jackson has four goals in his last three appearances.

Jaissle knows what that does to a dressing room. It gives them “a huge boost”, he said, before pointing out that Villa have problems of their own in the league.

They do. Villa sit 16th with five points from six matches, five points behind the top four, where they finished last season. They have lost 4-0 at Brighton, and at home to both Arsenal and Nottingham Forest. Wednesday was their first home win of the season in any competition, and Emery’s own words afterwards drew a line between two worlds: the Champions League, he said, is “the competition where we can feel comfortable”.

So does momentum carry over? Only partly. The Wednesday Villa and the Saturday Villa have looked like different teams, and the Saturday version has been better away from Villa Park than at it. Since the opening-weekend defeat at Brighton, they have won three and drawn one of their last four away games in all competitions, including at Tottenham and Coventry. A trip north does not frighten them.

Three days against five

What might is the calendar. Newcastle have had nearly five days since Coventry. Villa have had roughly three since Wednesday night.

Emery addressed it on Friday. “Some players may be tired,” he said, adding that he meant soreness rather than injury. He said “the rotation is coming” when his players are ready for his demands, but he would not name his XI until after training, and he wants players at full capacity, not 80 per cent.

The clues sit in the predicted team. Leon Goretzka, the summer signing, made his first appearance on Wednesday as a substitute and may not yet be ready to start. Joao Gomes and Boubacar Kamara, both midfielders, could return to the middle, with Emiliano Buendia, the playmaker, in for the scoring Barkley. At left-back, with Ian Maatsen and Matteo Ruggeri both injured, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, a right-back by trade, may fill in again. Midfielder Amadou Onana is also out.

That would put him opposite Jacob Murphy, who appears on the right in the predicted Newcastle XI. It is a prediction, and Emery has until the team sheet to change it.

Emery spoke respectfully of the opposition. He noted that Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali had left, that Nico Gonzalez has the quality to replace them, and that Newcastle have had more injuries than usual. Then he described what he expects at St James’ Park: pressing, duels, a crowd pushing the home side on. He wants fresh legs on his bench.

Both managers are reshaping their squads. The Mag, the independent Newcastle publication, framed it as two clubs squeezed by financial rules and forced into selling key players and replacing them with younger, cheaper options. Emery’s version was gentler: he is building a team the way he has in previous seasons, but this time with new and young players trying to close the gap as quickly as possible.

What to watch

Start with Joelinton. If he plays, Jaissle gets experience in midfield, and the vice-captain, who would likely wear the armband with Burn not ready, gets an immediate chance to turn Monday’s memory into something better.

Matias Fernandez-Pardo, the young forward, is next. Jaissle says he is already creating chances and is a goal away from getting his confidence back. He and Joe Willock both missed clear chances at Coventry.

Then there is the opening quarter of an hour. At Coventry the penalty arrived in the sixth minute and Newcastle spent the rest of the night chasing. A calm start would tell Jaissle more than any statistic.

The verdict

History is mixed. Villa won 2-0 at St James’ Park in January and could now win there in consecutive top-flight visits for the first time. Newcastle won the FA Cup tie at Villa Park 3-1 a month later. Emery, meanwhile, is a win away from his 100th in the Premier League.

Villa’s tired legs should show, if they show at all, in the last half hour. Newcastle’s response ought to be visible in their effort and shape, though a clean sheet is a bigger ask. Whichever side makes fewer mistakes probably wins it, and both can score: Newcastle have found the net in every league game, and Villa have a striker in form.

Prediction: Newcastle 2-2 Aston Villa.

A draw like that would carry its own footnote: a thirteenth home game without a clean sheet, and Newcastle level with Gullit’s side.